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In the Game of Markets, You Win or You Lie
At each of our workshops, we run prediction market games throughout the weekend, which are a chance for participants to check their credence and practice updating their beliefs based on new evidence....
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How to Automatically Track Anything With Beeminder
(This is a guest post from Louie Helm, CFAR alum April ’13 and the founder of Rockstar Research Magazine.) Like many people, I have goals. And because I care about my goals, I try my best to track...
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A Message to System 1
(A guest post from CFAR April ’13 alum Brienne Strohl) I used to be afraid of checking the balance of my bank account. I felt as though finding out how much money I had caused me to lose money, so I’d...
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Reference class forecasting fortune
A lesson in reference class forecasting, from our neighborhood Chinese restaurant: (Don’t get it? Read this.) The post Reference class forecasting fortune appeared first on CFAR.
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Dauntless and Divergent
In the five months before I saw Divergent, I went to the gym twice. In the five months since then, I’ve been just over fifty times (as well as making forays into interval sprints and Crossfit). A lot...
View Article4 Common Prediction Failures and How to Fix Them
Our predictions fail in predictably bad ways. Picture the last time you were getting ready to leave the house and you were asked how much longer you would take. And when was the last time you actually...
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Keep Your Identity Fluid
Keep your identity small? Why do some discussions involving smart and reasonable people generate such emotive responses and so often go nowhere? Why does this happen more often for politics and...
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Taking control of your happiness and productivity
What’s one thing you can do to improve your physical and mental health, be happier and more successful? Before I tell you the answer, first try answering these questions (interpretation in the...
View ArticleQ&A: Isn’t self-deception sometimes productive?
We’ll be taking people’s questions about life, philosophy, and rationality, and giving them our best off-the-cuff answers here on the CFAR blog. Q: “How do we confront the fact that having false...
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Back from Boston
CFAR staff and participants at the Boston workshop. Photo by Anna Riedl. We’re back from running our first-ever rationality workshop in Boston. (Well, actually, a rustic retreat in Harvard, MA, about...
View ArticleWhy learning to fix little “bugs” can make a big difference
We spend a fair amount of time at CFAR workshops tackling “bugs” in our daily lives. But does learning to solve small problems really make a big difference? Recent CFAR alum and Oxford student, Ben...
View ArticleA visual guide to Bayes’ Rule
Bayes’ Rule is a theorem from probability theory about how to adjust your confidence in your beliefs, as you learn new information. It’s often featured in CFAR workshops. In a recent video blog, Julia...
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Insights from the alumni reunion
Is it my imagination, or is there something about being in windswept landscapes — especially by the water — that makes it so much easier to come up with new insights? Last month over 100 CFAR alumni...
View ArticleDeliberate Grad School
A useful post from CFAR co-founder Andrew Critch’s personal blog describes how to get the most out of graduate school — especially if you want to maximize your positive impact on the world. Sample tip...
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